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Logistic and Multiple Regression: A Two-Pronged Approach to Accurately Estimate Cost Growth in Major DoD Weapon System
Matthew B. Rossetti
Spiral-bound. Storming Media 2004.
ISBN 9781423516279
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Publisher description
This is a AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSON AFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND MANAGEMENT report procured by the Pentagon and made available for public release. It has been reproduced in the best form available to the Pentagon. It is not spiral-bound, but rather assembled with Velobinding in a soft, white linen cover. The Storming Media report number is A749224. The abstract provided by the Pentagon follows: This research confirms the usefulness of the logistic and multiple regression two-step procedure for assessing cost growth in major DoD weapon systems. We compile programmatic data from the Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs) between 1990 and 2002 for programs covering all defense departments. Our analysis concentrates on cost growth in the procurement appropriations of the Engineering and Manufacturing Development phase of acquisitions. We investigate the use of logistic regression in cost growth analysis to predict whether or not cost growth will occur in a program. If applicable, multiple regression is implemented to predict how much cost growth will occur. Our study focuses on the estimating and support SAR cost variance categories within the procurement appropriations. We study each of these categories individually for significant cost growth characteristics and develop predictive models for each
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Logistic and Multiple Regression: A Two-Pronged Approach to Accurately Estimate Cost Growth in Major DoD Weapon System
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